Two prophets both make doomsday predictions, what is the probability of doomsday to happen?

One with a 90% accuracy rate and the other with a 30% accuracy rate.

It’s a funny probability question, but most people fail.

The probability is 120%.

Thanks for reading, over.

Okay, just kidding.🐶🐶

This is a popular question on the Internet, and many people try to give an accurate answer. But in fact, this question has no answer.

Whether the end of the world will happen and the probability of it happening are a priori events, which are determined by God, not by prophets.

So in this question, no matter how you calculate, you can’t know the probability of the doomsday. We can either ask God for this probability or count the frequency of the doomsday since the birth of the universe and use the frequency to estimate the probability.

However, we can modify the question briefly, then it will be a typical Bayesian probability question.

New question:

It is known that the probability of doomsday happening every month is 1%. Now there are two prophets, one with an…